2021/0507
黃金反彈，最終突破1800美元，而且漲幅很大！
Gold rallies and finally pushes past $1800, and in a big way!
黃金反彈，最終突破1800美元，而且漲幅很大！
Gary Wagner
Thursday May 06, 2021 20:22
Gold futures had a historical upside move today. Not only did gold pricing break above the key and major resistance level that occurs at our harmonic. We define a harmonic when two different technical studies point to the same price point. In the case of gold today, it broke through a major key psychological level at $1800. This also corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which is currently at $1797 per ounce. What is even more impressive is today’s strong rally not only resulted in a close above $1800 but rather a close to $1815, which is far in excess of the major resistance area that was broken. Marking the highest close since February, gold futures based on today’s action are destined for substantially higher pricing.
黃金期貨今天有歷史性的上漲趨勢。黃金價格不僅突破關鍵阻力位和主要阻力位。當兩個不同的技術研究指向相同的價格點時，我們定義一個諧波。就今天的黃金而言，它突破了1800美元的主要關鍵心理水平。這也對應於38.2％的斐波那契回撤位，目前為每盎司1797美元。更令人印象深刻的是，今天強勁的反彈不僅導致收盤價高於1800美元，而且收盤價接近1815美元，遠遠超出了被突破的主要阻力區域。基於今天的行動，黃金期貨創下了自2月以來的最高收盤價，注定要大幅提高價格。
Consider that over the last 15 trading days, gold has been mired in a narrow and defined trading range between approximately $1765 and $1798.60. we have seen an attempt at a breakout where prices either challenged the high or the low, but in all cases, they failed to move above resistance or below support on a closing basis. That all changed today and quite frankly took many analysts and market participants by surprise. While it was a welcomed surprise, it was nonetheless an unexpected move that occurred.
考慮在過去的15個交易日中，黃金一直陷於1765美元至1798.60美元之間的狹窄且確定的交易區間中。我們已經看到了突破的嘗試，價格挑戰了高點或低點，但在所有情況下，它們都未能在收盤價之上突破阻力位或跌破支撐位。今天這一切都改變了，坦率地說，讓許多分析師和市場參與者感到驚訝。儘管這是一個令人欣喜的驚喜，但是卻發生了意想不到的舉動。
Two primary factors have been cited by multiple analysts as the precipitating factor which moves both gold and silver prices substantially higher. The first is higher yields in U.S. Treasury 10-year notes, coupled with dollar weakness.
多個分析師已將兩個主要因素列為推動金價和白銀價格大幅上漲的誘因。首先是美國10年期國債的收益率上升，加上美元疲軟。
In the case of the 10-year notes, yields have been heading lower recently, as some analysts predict it will continue to see a diminishing yield which could take it back to approximately 1%. The fact that gold prices finished so strongly and so far above major resistance suggests that it has much higher to go in the near future. Based on our current technical studies, today’s solid upside move opened just above yesterday’s close, and during the session broke substantially above the 100-day moving average, closing just above $15 above that key level of resistance which most likely will now become support.
就10年期國債而言，近期收益率一直在走低，因為一些分析師預測它將繼續看到收益率下降，這可能使收益率回落至約1％。黃金價格如此強勁地完成並遠高於主要阻力的事實表明，在不久的將來，黃金的價格將走高得多。根據我們目前的技術研究，今天的堅固上行趨勢在昨日收盤價上方開盤，並且在交易時段內大幅突破100天移動均線，收盤在關鍵阻力位上方15美元上方，該阻力位很可能現在將成為支撐位。
Based upon our study of a Fibonacci retracement, we see the next level of resistance at $1844.20, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The chart that we have included in this article is a horizontal line coming in at $1815.90, which matches precisely with the intraday high which occurred on February 23; however, the first time market forces took gold pricing above $1815 on a closing basis occurred on February 8.
根據斐波那契回调（Fibonacci retracement）的研究，我們看到下一個阻力位1844.20美元，即61.8％斐波那契回撤位。我們在本文中包含的圖表是一條水平線，收於1815.90美元，與2月23日發生的盤中高點完全匹配。但是，市場力量在2月8日收盤時首次使金價收於1815美元上方。
Key and critical support must be pegged at the former resistance of $1800 per ounce with a minor support level below that at $1768.60, which is the 50% retracement.
關鍵和關鍵支撐必須固定在之前的阻力位1800美元/盎司，而較小的支撐位在1768.60美元（50％的回撤位）下方。
Copper and silver rally exceeds expectations
銅和白銀漲勢超出預期
Silver was able to also have a dynamic performance closing in New York at $27.42. However, it is copper that has drawn the attention of many traders who typically focus on the precious metals simply because the enormous upside potential and profit potential based upon demand greatly exceeds supply. Both our technical studies as well as forecasts from the commodity strategist at Bank of America are predicting the copper could trade as high as $580 per pound over the next few months, which is just shy of $13,000 per metric ton. Considering that a futures contract of copper represents 25,000 pounds, such a move could yield a profit of approximately $250,000.
白銀還能夠在紐約以27.42美元的價格收盤。然而，正是銅吸引了許多通常專注於貴金屬的交易者的關注，僅僅是因為其巨大的上漲潛力和基於需求的獲利潛力大大超過了供應。我們的技術研究以及美國銀行大宗商品策略師的預測都預測，未來幾個月銅的交易價格可能會高達每磅580美元，略低於每噸13,000美元。考慮到銅的期貨合約代表25,000磅，此舉可能會產生大約250,000美元的利潤。
By Gary Wagner
Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: Kitco News Commentaries
* 以上僅此作者個人觀點，不應做為投資建議。請務必詢問專業資產顧問再投資
黃金反彈，最終突破1800美元，而且漲幅很大！
Gary Wagner
Thursday May 06, 2021 20:22
Gold futures had a historical upside move today. Not only did gold pricing break above the key and major resistance level that occurs at our harmonic. We define a harmonic when two different technical studies point to the same price point. In the case of gold today, it broke through a major key psychological level at $1800. This also corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which is currently at $1797 per ounce. What is even more impressive is today’s strong rally not only resulted in a close above $1800 but rather a close to $1815, which is far in excess of the major resistance area that was broken. Marking the highest close since February, gold futures based on today’s action are destined for substantially higher pricing.
黃金期貨今天有歷史性的上漲趨勢。黃金價格不僅突破關鍵阻力位和主要阻力位。當兩個不同的技術研究指向相同的價格點時，我們定義一個諧波。就今天的黃金而言，它突破了1800美元的主要關鍵心理水平。這也對應於38.2％的斐波那契回撤位，目前為每盎司1797美元。更令人印象深刻的是，今天強勁的反彈不僅導致收盤價高於1800美元，而且收盤價接近1815美元，遠遠超出了被突破的主要阻力區域。基於今天的行動，黃金期貨創下了自2月以來的最高收盤價，注定要大幅提高價格。
Consider that over the last 15 trading days, gold has been mired in a narrow and defined trading range between approximately $1765 and $1798.60. we have seen an attempt at a breakout where prices either challenged the high or the low, but in all cases, they failed to move above resistance or below support on a closing basis. That all changed today and quite frankly took many analysts and market participants by surprise. While it was a welcomed surprise, it was nonetheless an unexpected move that occurred.
考慮在過去的15個交易日中，黃金一直陷於1765美元至1798.60美元之間的狹窄且確定的交易區間中。我們已經看到了突破的嘗試，價格挑戰了高點或低點，但在所有情況下，它們都未能在收盤價之上突破阻力位或跌破支撐位。今天這一切都改變了，坦率地說，讓許多分析師和市場參與者感到驚訝。儘管這是一個令人欣喜的驚喜，但是卻發生了意想不到的舉動。
Two primary factors have been cited by multiple analysts as the precipitating factor which moves both gold and silver prices substantially higher. The first is higher yields in U.S. Treasury 10-year notes, coupled with dollar weakness.
多個分析師已將兩個主要因素列為推動金價和白銀價格大幅上漲的誘因。首先是美國10年期國債的收益率上升，加上美元疲軟。
In the case of the 10-year notes, yields have been heading lower recently, as some analysts predict it will continue to see a diminishing yield which could take it back to approximately 1%. The fact that gold prices finished so strongly and so far above major resistance suggests that it has much higher to go in the near future. Based on our current technical studies, today’s solid upside move opened just above yesterday’s close, and during the session broke substantially above the 100-day moving average, closing just above $15 above that key level of resistance which most likely will now become support.
就10年期國債而言，近期收益率一直在走低，因為一些分析師預測它將繼續看到收益率下降，這可能使收益率回落至約1％。黃金價格如此強勁地完成並遠高於主要阻力的事實表明，在不久的將來，黃金的價格將走高得多。根據我們目前的技術研究，今天的堅固上行趨勢在昨日收盤價上方開盤，並且在交易時段內大幅突破100天移動均線，收盤在關鍵阻力位上方15美元上方，該阻力位很可能現在將成為支撐位。
Based upon our study of a Fibonacci retracement, we see the next level of resistance at $1844.20, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The chart that we have included in this article is a horizontal line coming in at $1815.90, which matches precisely with the intraday high which occurred on February 23; however, the first time market forces took gold pricing above $1815 on a closing basis occurred on February 8.
根據斐波那契回调（Fibonacci retracement）的研究，我們看到下一個阻力位1844.20美元，即61.8％斐波那契回撤位。我們在本文中包含的圖表是一條水平線，收於1815.90美元，與2月23日發生的盤中高點完全匹配。但是，市場力量在2月8日收盤時首次使金價收於1815美元上方。
Key and critical support must be pegged at the former resistance of $1800 per ounce with a minor support level below that at $1768.60, which is the 50% retracement.
關鍵和關鍵支撐必須固定在之前的阻力位1800美元/盎司，而較小的支撐位在1768.60美元（50％的回撤位）下方。
Copper and silver rally exceeds expectations
銅和白銀漲勢超出預期
Silver was able to also have a dynamic performance closing in New York at $27.42. However, it is copper that has drawn the attention of many traders who typically focus on the precious metals simply because the enormous upside potential and profit potential based upon demand greatly exceeds supply. Both our technical studies as well as forecasts from the commodity strategist at Bank of America are predicting the copper could trade as high as $580 per pound over the next few months, which is just shy of $13,000 per metric ton. Considering that a futures contract of copper represents 25,000 pounds, such a move could yield a profit of approximately $250,000.
白銀還能夠在紐約以27.42美元的價格收盤。然而，正是銅吸引了許多通常專注於貴金屬的交易者的關注，僅僅是因為其巨大的上漲潛力和基於需求的獲利潛力大大超過了供應。我們的技術研究以及美國銀行大宗商品策略師的預測都預測，未來幾個月銅的交易價格可能會高達每磅580美元，略低於每噸13,000美元。考慮到銅的期貨合約代表25,000磅，此舉可能會產生大約250,000美元的利潤。
By Gary Wagner
Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: Kitco News Commentaries
* 以上僅此作者個人觀點，不應做為投資建議。請務必詢問專業資產顧問再投資
