2021/0422
黃金目標1,800美元，鈀金目標超過每盎司3,000美元
As Gold Eyes $1,800, Palladium Looks Past $3,000
黃金目標1,800美元，鈀金目標超過每盎司3,000美元
By Investing.com (Barani Krishnan/Investing.com) Apr 21, 2021 04:12AM ET
Palladium is back to making record highs as gold eyes a less stellar achievement—recapturing the key $1,800 berth it lost in late February.
鈀金重回紀錄高位，因為金價表現不那麼出色-奪回了2月下旬失去的1800美元關鍵舖位。
While the potential upward moves in the two coincide, palladium is unchallenged as the metal for purifying emissions from gasoline-engines in an auto market recovering from COVID-19.
雖然兩者皆潛在上升勢頭，但鈀作為從COVID-19復甦的汽車市場上用於淨化汽油發動機排放物的金屬仍未受到阻礙。
Gold, meanwhile, is still struggling with the narrative that it is the best hedge against the dollar debasement expected from the trillions of dollars of US debt incurred under the pandemic—and the trillions more the Biden administration will likely spend on infrastructure and other recovery measures.
同時，黃金仍在掙扎著這樣的說法：它是最好的避險工具，可以防止大流行引發的數万億美元美元債務帶來的美元貶值，而拜登政府可能在基礎設施和其他恢復措施上花費的數万億美元。
At the outset, it’s a tale of two metals, with palladium appearing supreme.
從一開始，這就是兩種金屬的故事，鈀似乎是至高無上的。
Yet, it cannot be denied that if gold were to make a run for the high $1,800 level—and possibly take on $1,900 next—its positive rub on palladium could spur the autocatalyst metal to greater heights.
然而，不能否認的是，如果金價能衝高至1,800美元的高位，甚至可能升至1,900美元，那麼其對鈀金的正面衝擊可能將自動催化劑金屬 (意旨:鈀金) 推向更高的高度。
Citigroup’s base case is for palladium to reach a historic high of $3,000 during the next three months.
花旗集團的基本假設是，鈀金在未來三個月內將達到3000美元的歷史高位。
The peak could even be $3,500 if disruptions at Norilskiy Nikel's (MCX:GMKN) Siberian mines—the largest palladium producing facility in the world—turn out to be worse than estimated, the bank said.
該銀行表示，如果Norilskiy Nikel（MCX：GMKN）西伯利亞礦山（世界上最大的鈀金生產設施）的中斷結果比預期的還要糟糕，則峰值甚至可能達到3500美元。
On Monday, palladium futures on New York’s COMEX, as well as the spot price of palladium, hit record highs of just above $2,851, rewriting a string of peaks that began at above $2,700 on Apr. 13.
週一，紐約商品交易所（COMEX）上的鈀金期貨以及鈀金的現貨價格創下了略高於2,851美元的紀錄高點，重寫了一系列始於4月13日高於2,700美元的峰值。
Palladium On One Of Its Strongest Legs Ever
鈀金有史以來最強的衝之一
Technically, palladium is on one of its strongest legs ever for a rally, surging almost 25% from lows of under $2,295 during the week ended Feb. 26.
從技術上講，鈀金是有史以來最強勁的漲勢之一，在截至2月26日的一周中，鈀金價格從2295美元的低點上漲了近25％。
Barring a two-week break between late March and early April, it has virtually been an eight-week upward trajectory for palladium.
除非3月下旬至4月初有兩週的休息時間，否則鈀金實際上已經是八週的上升軌跡。
On a monthly basis, the autocatalyst metal has straight wins from February through April, with a gain of more than 12% for March alone.
按月計算，從2月到4月，汽車催化劑金屬連續獲勝，僅3月份就增長了12％以上。
Palladium Futures Daily 鈀金期貨(日)
All charts courtesy of SK Dixit Charting
Sunil Kumar Dixit of SK Dixit Charting in Kolkata, India, said palladium appeared poised to continue its reach for $3,000, especially if its current momentum above $2,700 did not stutter.
印度加爾各答SK Dixit Charting公司的Sunil Kumar Dixit表示，鈀金似乎有望繼續達到3,000美元，特別是如果目前2,700美元上方的勢頭沒有停滯的話。
“Even if prices hold above long term-support at the five-month Exponential Moving Average of $2,480, the long-term bullish outlook in palladium remains affirmative/unchallenged."
“即使價格保持在長期支撐位上方的五個月指數移動平均線2,480美元上方，鈀金的長期看漲前景仍然是肯定的/未受到挑戰的。”
“The mid-term outlook is also up and bullish as long as the five-week EMA of $2,710 holds good.”
“只要五週均線$ 2,710保持良好，中期前景也看漲並看漲。”
In terms of a target, Dixit said the 123.6% Fibonacci extension of the move measured from the February 2020 high of $2,789 to the March 2020 low of $1,355 gave an immediate target of $3,127.
就目標而言，Dixit表示，此舉從2020年2月高點2,789美元至2020年3月低點1,355美元的123.6％斐波納契擴展給出了3,127美元的近期目標。
“But this is subject to prices holding above mid term support of $2,710—not lower.”
“但這取決於價格能否維持在中期支撐位2,710美元上方，而不是更低。”
Palladium Futures Weekly鈀金期貨(週)
Investing.com Technicals: Palladium A 'Strong Buy'
Investing.com技術數據分析：鈀金“強力買入”
Investing.com’s Daily Technical Outlook calls palladium futures a “Strong Buy”.
Investing.com的《每日技術展望》稱鈀金期貨為“強力買入”。
Should the market extend its bullish trend, a three-tier Fibonacci resistance is forecast in the near-term, first at $2,641, then $2,828 and later at $2,864.
如果市場延續其看漲趨勢，則短期內將預測三級斐波那契阻力，首先是2,641美元，然後是2,828美元，然後是2,864美元。
In the event of a retreat, then a three-stage Fibonacci support is expected to form, first at $2,735, then $2,713 and later at $2,677.
如果出現退縮，則預計將形成三個階段的斐波那契支撐，首先是2,735美元，然後是2,713美元，然後是2,677美元。
In any case, the pivot point between the two levels is $2,735.
無論如何，兩個水平之間的樞軸點是$ 2,735。
Chris Blasi, president and chairman at Neptune Global, a precious metals-focused investment company in Wilmington, Delaware, is also a believer in $3,000 palladium and Citi’s highwater target of $3,500.
海王星環球公司（Neptune Global）的總裁兼董事長克里斯·布拉西（Chris Blasi）信奉鈀金3,000美元，花旗（Citi）的高水位目標為3500美元，該公司專注於貴金屬，投資於特拉華州的威爾明頓。
“As the global economy emerges from the effects of the lockdowns, demand for consumer and industrial goods is on the rise,” Blasi was quoted saying earlier this week.
布拉西在本週早些時候表示：“隨著全球經濟從封鎖的影響中崛起，對消費品和工業品的需求正在上升。”
He added:
他加說:
“Increased automobile production directly drives increased demand for palladium, which is drawing on a strategic metal whose annual industrial demand has outstripped mine output for several years.”
“汽車產量的增加直接帶動了對鈀金需求的增長，鈀金是依靠一種戰略性金屬製成的，該金屬的年工業需求已經連續幾年超過了挖礦的產量。”
Blasi said heightened geopolitical tensions with the world’s largest supplier of palladium, Russia, was another factor “that cannot be ignored or minimized”.
布拉西說，與全球最大的鈀金供應國俄羅斯之間加劇的地緣政治緊張局勢是“不可忽視或最小化”的另一個因素。
Disruptions at Russian mines run by Nornickel have exacerbated supply concerns, even after the world’s largest producer has said the recovery is proceeding faster than originally planned. UBS Group forecasts a deficit of about 1 million ounces in 2021, which would be 10th straight annual shortfall.
即使是全球最大的生產商表示，復甦的步伐要比原先計劃的要快，但由Nornickel經營的俄羅斯礦山的中斷加劇了供應擔憂。瑞銀集團（UBS Group）預測，到2021年將出現約100萬盎司的赤字，這將是連續第10年短缺。
Nornickel said at the end of March it had stopped water flowing into its two major mines in the Siberian Arctic and both were on track to fully resume production in coming months.
Nornickel說，3月底，它已經停止了水流入西伯利亞北極地區的兩個主要礦山，並且都有望在未來幾個月內完全恢復生產。
Restocking by automakers, expected to take place in the second half of this year and next year, after a chip shortage-induced destocking could boost demand for palladium.
汽車製造商的補貨，預計將在今年下半年和明年進行，因為芯片短缺導致的去庫存可能提振對鈀的需求。
Citigroup’s analysts including said in a recent note:
花旗集團的分析師在最近的一份報告中表示：
The “'catch up' when chip supply recovers and auto stocks are rebuilt will be significant. This will be bullish for palladium physical balances especially.”
芯片供應恢復和汽車庫存重建時的“追趕”意義重大。這對於鈀金的物理平衡尤其有利。”
A scenario in which half of prior stocks are rebuilt over six months would represent about a 5% annualized total demand increase for palladium, while a bull case in which all prior stocks are rebuilt would be worth about 10%, the analysts said.
分析師表示，在六個月內重建一半先前存貨的情況下，鈀的年化總需求量將增長約5％，而在牛市情況下重建所有先前存量的牛市價值將達到10％左右。
Disclaimer: Barani Krishnan uses a range of views outside his own to bring diversity to his analysis of any market. For neutrality, he sometimes presents contrarian views and market variables. He does not hold a position in the commodities and securities he writes about.
免責聲明：巴拉尼·克里希南（Barani Krishnan）運用自己之外的各種觀點為他對任何市場的分析帶來了多樣性。為了保持中立，他有時會提出反向觀點和市場變量。他沒有在所撰寫的商品和證券中擔任任何職務。
Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: Investing.com
黃金目標1,800美元，鈀金目標超過每盎司3,000美元
By Investing.com (Barani Krishnan/Investing.com) Apr 21, 2021 04:12AM ET
Palladium is back to making record highs as gold eyes a less stellar achievement—recapturing the key $1,800 berth it lost in late February.
鈀金重回紀錄高位，因為金價表現不那麼出色-奪回了2月下旬失去的1800美元關鍵舖位。
While the potential upward moves in the two coincide, palladium is unchallenged as the metal for purifying emissions from gasoline-engines in an auto market recovering from COVID-19.
雖然兩者皆潛在上升勢頭，但鈀作為從COVID-19復甦的汽車市場上用於淨化汽油發動機排放物的金屬仍未受到阻礙。
Gold, meanwhile, is still struggling with the narrative that it is the best hedge against the dollar debasement expected from the trillions of dollars of US debt incurred under the pandemic—and the trillions more the Biden administration will likely spend on infrastructure and other recovery measures.
同時，黃金仍在掙扎著這樣的說法：它是最好的避險工具，可以防止大流行引發的數万億美元美元債務帶來的美元貶值，而拜登政府可能在基礎設施和其他恢復措施上花費的數万億美元。
At the outset, it’s a tale of two metals, with palladium appearing supreme.
從一開始，這就是兩種金屬的故事，鈀似乎是至高無上的。
Yet, it cannot be denied that if gold were to make a run for the high $1,800 level—and possibly take on $1,900 next—its positive rub on palladium could spur the autocatalyst metal to greater heights.
然而，不能否認的是，如果金價能衝高至1,800美元的高位，甚至可能升至1,900美元，那麼其對鈀金的正面衝擊可能將自動催化劑金屬 (意旨:鈀金) 推向更高的高度。
Citigroup’s base case is for palladium to reach a historic high of $3,000 during the next three months.
花旗集團的基本假設是，鈀金在未來三個月內將達到3000美元的歷史高位。
The peak could even be $3,500 if disruptions at Norilskiy Nikel's (MCX:GMKN) Siberian mines—the largest palladium producing facility in the world—turn out to be worse than estimated, the bank said.
該銀行表示，如果Norilskiy Nikel（MCX：GMKN）西伯利亞礦山（世界上最大的鈀金生產設施）的中斷結果比預期的還要糟糕，則峰值甚至可能達到3500美元。
On Monday, palladium futures on New York’s COMEX, as well as the spot price of palladium, hit record highs of just above $2,851, rewriting a string of peaks that began at above $2,700 on Apr. 13.
週一，紐約商品交易所（COMEX）上的鈀金期貨以及鈀金的現貨價格創下了略高於2,851美元的紀錄高點，重寫了一系列始於4月13日高於2,700美元的峰值。
Palladium On One Of Its Strongest Legs Ever
鈀金有史以來最強的衝之一
Technically, palladium is on one of its strongest legs ever for a rally, surging almost 25% from lows of under $2,295 during the week ended Feb. 26.
從技術上講，鈀金是有史以來最強勁的漲勢之一，在截至2月26日的一周中，鈀金價格從2295美元的低點上漲了近25％。
Barring a two-week break between late March and early April, it has virtually been an eight-week upward trajectory for palladium.
除非3月下旬至4月初有兩週的休息時間，否則鈀金實際上已經是八週的上升軌跡。
On a monthly basis, the autocatalyst metal has straight wins from February through April, with a gain of more than 12% for March alone.
按月計算，從2月到4月，汽車催化劑金屬連續獲勝，僅3月份就增長了12％以上。
Palladium Futures Daily 鈀金期貨(日)
All charts courtesy of SK Dixit Charting
Sunil Kumar Dixit of SK Dixit Charting in Kolkata, India, said palladium appeared poised to continue its reach for $3,000, especially if its current momentum above $2,700 did not stutter.
印度加爾各答SK Dixit Charting公司的Sunil Kumar Dixit表示，鈀金似乎有望繼續達到3,000美元，特別是如果目前2,700美元上方的勢頭沒有停滯的話。
“Even if prices hold above long term-support at the five-month Exponential Moving Average of $2,480, the long-term bullish outlook in palladium remains affirmative/unchallenged."
“即使價格保持在長期支撐位上方的五個月指數移動平均線2,480美元上方，鈀金的長期看漲前景仍然是肯定的/未受到挑戰的。”
“The mid-term outlook is also up and bullish as long as the five-week EMA of $2,710 holds good.”
“只要五週均線$ 2,710保持良好，中期前景也看漲並看漲。”
In terms of a target, Dixit said the 123.6% Fibonacci extension of the move measured from the February 2020 high of $2,789 to the March 2020 low of $1,355 gave an immediate target of $3,127.
就目標而言，Dixit表示，此舉從2020年2月高點2,789美元至2020年3月低點1,355美元的123.6％斐波納契擴展給出了3,127美元的近期目標。
“But this is subject to prices holding above mid term support of $2,710—not lower.”
“但這取決於價格能否維持在中期支撐位2,710美元上方，而不是更低。”
Palladium Futures Weekly鈀金期貨(週)
Investing.com Technicals: Palladium A 'Strong Buy'
Investing.com技術數據分析：鈀金“強力買入”
Investing.com’s Daily Technical Outlook calls palladium futures a “Strong Buy”.
Investing.com的《每日技術展望》稱鈀金期貨為“強力買入”。
Should the market extend its bullish trend, a three-tier Fibonacci resistance is forecast in the near-term, first at $2,641, then $2,828 and later at $2,864.
如果市場延續其看漲趨勢，則短期內將預測三級斐波那契阻力，首先是2,641美元，然後是2,828美元，然後是2,864美元。
In the event of a retreat, then a three-stage Fibonacci support is expected to form, first at $2,735, then $2,713 and later at $2,677.
如果出現退縮，則預計將形成三個階段的斐波那契支撐，首先是2,735美元，然後是2,713美元，然後是2,677美元。
In any case, the pivot point between the two levels is $2,735.
無論如何，兩個水平之間的樞軸點是$ 2,735。
Chris Blasi, president and chairman at Neptune Global, a precious metals-focused investment company in Wilmington, Delaware, is also a believer in $3,000 palladium and Citi’s highwater target of $3,500.
海王星環球公司（Neptune Global）的總裁兼董事長克里斯·布拉西（Chris Blasi）信奉鈀金3,000美元，花旗（Citi）的高水位目標為3500美元，該公司專注於貴金屬，投資於特拉華州的威爾明頓。
“As the global economy emerges from the effects of the lockdowns, demand for consumer and industrial goods is on the rise,” Blasi was quoted saying earlier this week.
布拉西在本週早些時候表示：“隨著全球經濟從封鎖的影響中崛起，對消費品和工業品的需求正在上升。”
He added:
他加說:
“Increased automobile production directly drives increased demand for palladium, which is drawing on a strategic metal whose annual industrial demand has outstripped mine output for several years.”
“汽車產量的增加直接帶動了對鈀金需求的增長，鈀金是依靠一種戰略性金屬製成的，該金屬的年工業需求已經連續幾年超過了挖礦的產量。”
Blasi said heightened geopolitical tensions with the world’s largest supplier of palladium, Russia, was another factor “that cannot be ignored or minimized”.
布拉西說，與全球最大的鈀金供應國俄羅斯之間加劇的地緣政治緊張局勢是“不可忽視或最小化”的另一個因素。
Disruptions at Russian mines run by Nornickel have exacerbated supply concerns, even after the world’s largest producer has said the recovery is proceeding faster than originally planned. UBS Group forecasts a deficit of about 1 million ounces in 2021, which would be 10th straight annual shortfall.
即使是全球最大的生產商表示，復甦的步伐要比原先計劃的要快，但由Nornickel經營的俄羅斯礦山的中斷加劇了供應擔憂。瑞銀集團（UBS Group）預測，到2021年將出現約100萬盎司的赤字，這將是連續第10年短缺。
Nornickel said at the end of March it had stopped water flowing into its two major mines in the Siberian Arctic and both were on track to fully resume production in coming months.
Nornickel說，3月底，它已經停止了水流入西伯利亞北極地區的兩個主要礦山，並且都有望在未來幾個月內完全恢復生產。
Restocking by automakers, expected to take place in the second half of this year and next year, after a chip shortage-induced destocking could boost demand for palladium.
汽車製造商的補貨，預計將在今年下半年和明年進行，因為芯片短缺導致的去庫存可能提振對鈀的需求。
Citigroup’s analysts including said in a recent note:
花旗集團的分析師在最近的一份報告中表示：
The “'catch up' when chip supply recovers and auto stocks are rebuilt will be significant. This will be bullish for palladium physical balances especially.”
芯片供應恢復和汽車庫存重建時的“追趕”意義重大。這對於鈀金的物理平衡尤其有利。”
A scenario in which half of prior stocks are rebuilt over six months would represent about a 5% annualized total demand increase for palladium, while a bull case in which all prior stocks are rebuilt would be worth about 10%, the analysts said.
分析師表示，在六個月內重建一半先前存貨的情況下，鈀的年化總需求量將增長約5％，而在牛市情況下重建所有先前存量的牛市價值將達到10％左右。
Disclaimer: Barani Krishnan uses a range of views outside his own to bring diversity to his analysis of any market. For neutrality, he sometimes presents contrarian views and market variables. He does not hold a position in the commodities and securities he writes about.
免責聲明：巴拉尼·克里希南（Barani Krishnan）運用自己之外的各種觀點為他對任何市場的分析帶來了多樣性。為了保持中立，他有時會提出反向觀點和市場變量。他沒有在所撰寫的商品和證券中擔任任何職務。
Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: Investing.com
