2021/0720
“收益率曲線控制”來了
“Yield Curve Control”is Coming
“收益率曲線控制”來了
By Graham Summers
July 19, 2021
Over the last few days, we’ve outlined why the U.S. needs to devalue the U.S. Dollar ($USD) in order to “inflate away” its massive $28 trillion debt load.
在過去的幾天裡，我們概述了為什麼美國需要讓美元 ($USD) 貶值以“膨脹”其 28 萬億美元的巨額債務負擔。
However, the Fed doesn’t want bond yields to spike based on the inflation that this would unleash. Consequently, we believe the Fed will soon adopt a policy called “yield curve control” through which it would simply print money to buy U.S.
然而，美聯儲不希望債券收益率因這會引發的通脹而飆升。因此，我們相信美聯儲將很快採取一種稱為“收益率曲線控制”的政策，通過該政策，它只需印鈔票即可購買美國。
Treasuries anytime their yields rise above a certain level.
任何時候國債的收益率上升到某個水平以上。
If this idea sounds insane to you, consider that Japan has been doing it for the better part of the last 5 years (since September 2016). Any time yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) rise above 0%, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) prints new money and uses it to buy them.
如果這個想法對您來說聽起來很瘋狂，請考慮一下日本在過去 5 年（自 2016 年 9 月以來）的大部分時間裡一直在這樣做。每當 10 年期日本政府債券 (JGB) 的收益率升至 0% 以上時，日本銀行 (BoJ) 就會印製新貨幣並用它來購買。
As you can see, this campaign has been relatively successful with yields hovering around the BoJ’s goal or trading well below it.
如您所見，該活動相對成功，收益率徘徊在日本央行的目標附近或遠低於該目標。
.JPG)
So why would the Fed do this?
那麼美聯儲為什麼要這樣做呢？
Because it allows the Fed to technically run an open-ended Quantitative Easing (QE) program without committing to a certain amount like its current QE program of $120 billion per month.
因為它允許美聯儲在技術上運行開放式量化寬鬆 (QE) 計劃，而無需像目前每月 1200 億美元的量化寬鬆計劃那樣承諾一定數額。
While both methods of QE are technically open-ended, yield curve control appears to involve printing less money. As such it is seen as less inflationary.
雖然這兩種量化寬鬆方法在技術上都是開放式的，但收益率曲線控制似乎涉及印更少的錢。因此，它被視為通貨膨脹率較低。
Additionally, yield curve control makes the Fed’s policies appear to be focused on keeping bond yields at certain levels which, with $28 trillion in U.S. public debt, would be seen as an issue of systemic importance.
此外，收益率曲線控制使美聯儲的政策似乎側重於將債券收益率保持在特定水平，而美國公共債務為28兆美元，這將被視為具有系統重要性的問題。
Put simply, yield curve control has a “goal” in mind and doesn’t appear to be simply printing billions of dollars mindlessly every month.
簡而言之，收益率曲線控制有一個“目標”，而且似乎並不是每個月盲目地印刷數十億美元。
It is clear that the Fed has realized its policies are politically toxic. For one thing, they’ve generated massive wealth inequality as the wealthy can leverage up to take advantage of the bubbles the Fed has created in stocks and real estate.
很明顯，美聯儲已經意識到其政策在政治上是有毒的。一方面，它們造成了巨大的財富不平等，因為富人可以利用美聯儲在股票和房地產領域製造的泡沫。
And, of course, there’s also the fact that the Fed’s monetary interventions to benefit big business are over $2.5 trillion, while it barely spent $7 billion on Main Street and small businesses.
當然，還有一個事實是，美聯儲為使大企業受益而採取的貨幣干預措施超過 2.5 兆美元，而它在大街和小企業上的支出僅為70億美元。
Put simply, yield curve control allows the Fed to continue printing money and cornering the bond market without the political consequences of traditional QE programs. For this reason, it is highly like the Fed will launch it in the next six to twelve months.
簡而言之，收益率曲線控制允許美聯儲繼續印鈔並壟斷債券市場，而不會產生傳統量化寬鬆計劃的政治後果。出於這個原因，美聯儲很可能會在未來六到十二個月內推出它。
This is particularly true with inflation heating up.
在通貨膨脹升溫的情況下尤其如此。
Graham Summers
Editor, Money & Crisis
炫麗 Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: Money & Crisis
*文章內容為筆者個人見解，僅供參考。恕不代表本站立場
“收益率曲線控制”來了
By Graham Summers
July 19, 2021
Over the last few days, we’ve outlined why the U.S. needs to devalue the U.S. Dollar ($USD) in order to “inflate away” its massive $28 trillion debt load.
在過去的幾天裡，我們概述了為什麼美國需要讓美元 ($USD) 貶值以“膨脹”其 28 萬億美元的巨額債務負擔。
However, the Fed doesn’t want bond yields to spike based on the inflation that this would unleash. Consequently, we believe the Fed will soon adopt a policy called “yield curve control” through which it would simply print money to buy U.S.
然而，美聯儲不希望債券收益率因這會引發的通脹而飆升。因此，我們相信美聯儲將很快採取一種稱為“收益率曲線控制”的政策，通過該政策，它只需印鈔票即可購買美國。
Treasuries anytime their yields rise above a certain level.
任何時候國債的收益率上升到某個水平以上。
If this idea sounds insane to you, consider that Japan has been doing it for the better part of the last 5 years (since September 2016). Any time yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) rise above 0%, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) prints new money and uses it to buy them.
如果這個想法對您來說聽起來很瘋狂，請考慮一下日本在過去 5 年（自 2016 年 9 月以來）的大部分時間裡一直在這樣做。每當 10 年期日本政府債券 (JGB) 的收益率升至 0% 以上時，日本銀行 (BoJ) 就會印製新貨幣並用它來購買。
As you can see, this campaign has been relatively successful with yields hovering around the BoJ’s goal or trading well below it.
如您所見，該活動相對成功，收益率徘徊在日本央行的目標附近或遠低於該目標。
So why would the Fed do this?
那麼美聯儲為什麼要這樣做呢？
Because it allows the Fed to technically run an open-ended Quantitative Easing (QE) program without committing to a certain amount like its current QE program of $120 billion per month.
因為它允許美聯儲在技術上運行開放式量化寬鬆 (QE) 計劃，而無需像目前每月 1200 億美元的量化寬鬆計劃那樣承諾一定數額。
While both methods of QE are technically open-ended, yield curve control appears to involve printing less money. As such it is seen as less inflationary.
雖然這兩種量化寬鬆方法在技術上都是開放式的，但收益率曲線控制似乎涉及印更少的錢。因此，它被視為通貨膨脹率較低。
Additionally, yield curve control makes the Fed’s policies appear to be focused on keeping bond yields at certain levels which, with $28 trillion in U.S. public debt, would be seen as an issue of systemic importance.
此外，收益率曲線控制使美聯儲的政策似乎側重於將債券收益率保持在特定水平，而美國公共債務為28兆美元，這將被視為具有系統重要性的問題。
Put simply, yield curve control has a “goal” in mind and doesn’t appear to be simply printing billions of dollars mindlessly every month.
簡而言之，收益率曲線控制有一個“目標”，而且似乎並不是每個月盲目地印刷數十億美元。
It is clear that the Fed has realized its policies are politically toxic. For one thing, they’ve generated massive wealth inequality as the wealthy can leverage up to take advantage of the bubbles the Fed has created in stocks and real estate.
很明顯，美聯儲已經意識到其政策在政治上是有毒的。一方面，它們造成了巨大的財富不平等，因為富人可以利用美聯儲在股票和房地產領域製造的泡沫。
And, of course, there’s also the fact that the Fed’s monetary interventions to benefit big business are over $2.5 trillion, while it barely spent $7 billion on Main Street and small businesses.
當然，還有一個事實是，美聯儲為使大企業受益而採取的貨幣干預措施超過 2.5 兆美元，而它在大街和小企業上的支出僅為70億美元。
Put simply, yield curve control allows the Fed to continue printing money and cornering the bond market without the political consequences of traditional QE programs. For this reason, it is highly like the Fed will launch it in the next six to twelve months.
簡而言之，收益率曲線控制允許美聯儲繼續印鈔並壟斷債券市場，而不會產生傳統量化寬鬆計劃的政治後果。出於這個原因，美聯儲很可能會在未來六到十二個月內推出它。
This is particularly true with inflation heating up.
在通貨膨脹升溫的情況下尤其如此。
Graham Summers
Editor, Money & Crisis
炫麗 Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: Money & Crisis
*文章內容為筆者個人見解，僅供參考。恕不代表本站立場
