2021/0526
兩張圖表，一條消息：準備好大量買進白銀了嗎？
兩張圖表，一條消息：準備好大量買進白銀了嗎？
Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver.com
MAY 24, 2021
An ideal way to invest is to identify an asset that is both undervalued and poised to rise. Easier said than done, but if an investor can find an opportunity that meets those two criteria, they can put the odds greatly in their favor.
一種理想的投資方式是識別一種被低估且準備上升的資產。說起來容易做起來難，但是如果投資者能找到一個符合這兩個條件的機會，他們就可以大大地幫助他們。
Well, that may be exactly what we have with silver right now. See what you think…
好吧，這可能正是我們目前擁有的白銀。看看你的想法...
Criteria #1: Relative to other assets, silver is deeply undervalued. There are a number of ways to show this, but here’s another one that dawned on me while watching the recent fall in the stock markets.
標準1：相對於其他資產，白銀被嚴重低估。有很多方法可以證明這一點，但是在觀看股市近期下跌時，我想到了另一種方法。
The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all kept making new all-time highs over the past year. They finally had a correction, so I wondered how far they were from their all-time highs compared to silver.
標普500，道瓊斯指數和納斯達克指數均在過去一年中屢創新高。他們終於有了修正，所以我想知道與白銀相比，他們離他們的歷史高點還有多遠。
This chart shows the percentage each asset is currently below its all-time high (as of Friday, May 21).
該圖表顯示了每種資產當前低於其歷史最高水平（截至5月21日星期五）的百分比。
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Despite the correction in the general stock market, silver is further from its peak than all the major indexes. It is nearly 44% below its all-time high, while stock markets still hover near theirs. Gold is only 9.1% from its peak.
儘管總體股市有所調整，但白銀離所有主要指數均距離其峰值還很遠。較歷史高點低近44％，而股市仍徘徊在歷史高點附近。黃金離其峰值僅9.1％。
Would you rather buy an investment hovering near all-time highs, or one that’s almost half of it? Clearly the better value right now is with silver.
您是否願意購買徘徊在歷史高點附近或接近一半的投資？顯然，銀現在具有更好的價值。
Criteria #2: Timing an investment purchase is a never-ending dilemma, because you never know for certain what the price will do in the short-term.
標準2：選擇投資時機是一個永無止境的難題，因為您永遠無法確定短期內價格將如何變化。
But what if you had data that spanned 53 years and showed a specific tendency about its price behavior, at a particular time of year? There’d still be no guarantees, but it could potentially give you an edge.
但是，如果您的數據跨度為53年，並且在一年中的特定時間顯示出其價格行為的特定趨勢，該怎麼辦？仍然無法保證，但有可能為您帶來優勢。
That’s what we have with silver…
那就是我們白銀所擁有的……
We’ve showed this chart before, but the timing right now is compelling.
我們之前已經顯示了此圖表，但是現在的時機非常誘人。
It shows silver’s average daily gain and loss over the past 53 years. Look what tends to happen to the price in June.
它顯示了過去53年中白銀的平均每日損益。看看六月份的價格趨勢如何。
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From now until the 4th of July holiday, the silver price has a strong seasonal tendency to fall. Which, if the averages play out, would be the lowest levels for the rest of the year and a great buy point for long-term holdings.
從即日起至7月4日假期，白銀價格具有強烈的季節性下跌趨勢。如果均線結束，那將是今年餘下時間的最低水平，也是長期持有的一個很好的買入點。
You can see what the price tends to do after the holiday. It is indeed “poised to rise;” from then till the end of September is its strongest time of year.
您可以查看假期後的價格走勢。它確實是“蓄勢待發；”從那時到9月底是一年中最強勁的時間。
For those of you that have an“accumulation” mentality, this can be valuable intel. It’s basically how I handle buying silver (and gold), too; I swoop in on dips and corrections and big selloffs.
對於那些具有“積累”心態的人來說，這可能是有價值的知識。基本上，這也是我處理白銀（和黃金）的方式。我買入, 在修正期和大跌價時。
My confidence in the big picture for silver gives me the confidence to buy when the price softens. I’m accumulating in the present for a big payday in the future. Pullbacks are thus a chance for me to pay less.
我對白銀的整體前景充滿信心，這使我有信心在價格下跌時購買白銀。目前，我正在為未來積累大量薪水。因此，下跌時對我來說是一次少付一點錢的機會。
Of course there’s no guarantee seasonal trends will play out. There are a lot of factors that can impact silver’s price in the short-term.
當然，我們不能保證季節性趨勢會持續下去。有許多因素會在短期內影響白銀的價格。
But this data does tell us one thing:
但是這些數據確實告訴我們一件事：
Be on the lookout for a potential decline in the silver price. Build cash to take advantage of it if the opportunity comes.
Premiums remain stubbornly high, so this is how I’m accumulating silver for the time being… it allows me to pay a low premium now and convert later when they come down (or just sell).
請注意白銀價格可能會下跌。如果有機會，積累現金好以利用。
溢價一直居高不下，所以這就是我暫時積累白銀的方式……它使我現在可以支付低價的溢價，並在它們下跌時進行轉換(或直接賣掉)。
Whatever you do, I hope you’re prepared to pounce on the next dip, whenever it may arrive.
無論您做什麼，我都希望您準備好在下一個下降時突襲一下。
Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst
Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: GoldSilver.com
*文章內容為筆者個人見解，僅供參考。恕不代表本站立場
Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver.com
MAY 24, 2021
An ideal way to invest is to identify an asset that is both undervalued and poised to rise. Easier said than done, but if an investor can find an opportunity that meets those two criteria, they can put the odds greatly in their favor.
一種理想的投資方式是識別一種被低估且準備上升的資產。說起來容易做起來難，但是如果投資者能找到一個符合這兩個條件的機會，他們就可以大大地幫助他們。
Well, that may be exactly what we have with silver right now. See what you think…
好吧，這可能正是我們目前擁有的白銀。看看你的想法...
Criteria #1: Relative to other assets, silver is deeply undervalued. There are a number of ways to show this, but here’s another one that dawned on me while watching the recent fall in the stock markets.
標準1：相對於其他資產，白銀被嚴重低估。有很多方法可以證明這一點，但是在觀看股市近期下跌時，我想到了另一種方法。
The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all kept making new all-time highs over the past year. They finally had a correction, so I wondered how far they were from their all-time highs compared to silver.
標普500，道瓊斯指數和納斯達克指數均在過去一年中屢創新高。他們終於有了修正，所以我想知道與白銀相比，他們離他們的歷史高點還有多遠。
This chart shows the percentage each asset is currently below its all-time high (as of Friday, May 21).
該圖表顯示了每種資產當前低於其歷史最高水平（截至5月21日星期五）的百分比。
Despite the correction in the general stock market, silver is further from its peak than all the major indexes. It is nearly 44% below its all-time high, while stock markets still hover near theirs. Gold is only 9.1% from its peak.
儘管總體股市有所調整，但白銀離所有主要指數均距離其峰值還很遠。較歷史高點低近44％，而股市仍徘徊在歷史高點附近。黃金離其峰值僅9.1％。
Would you rather buy an investment hovering near all-time highs, or one that’s almost half of it? Clearly the better value right now is with silver.
您是否願意購買徘徊在歷史高點附近或接近一半的投資？顯然，銀現在具有更好的價值。
Criteria #2: Timing an investment purchase is a never-ending dilemma, because you never know for certain what the price will do in the short-term.
標準2：選擇投資時機是一個永無止境的難題，因為您永遠無法確定短期內價格將如何變化。
But what if you had data that spanned 53 years and showed a specific tendency about its price behavior, at a particular time of year? There’d still be no guarantees, but it could potentially give you an edge.
但是，如果您的數據跨度為53年，並且在一年中的特定時間顯示出其價格行為的特定趨勢，該怎麼辦？仍然無法保證，但有可能為您帶來優勢。
That’s what we have with silver…
那就是我們白銀所擁有的……
We’ve showed this chart before, but the timing right now is compelling.
我們之前已經顯示了此圖表，但是現在的時機非常誘人。
It shows silver’s average daily gain and loss over the past 53 years. Look what tends to happen to the price in June.
它顯示了過去53年中白銀的平均每日損益。看看六月份的價格趨勢如何。
From now until the 4th of July holiday, the silver price has a strong seasonal tendency to fall. Which, if the averages play out, would be the lowest levels for the rest of the year and a great buy point for long-term holdings.
從即日起至7月4日假期，白銀價格具有強烈的季節性下跌趨勢。如果均線結束，那將是今年餘下時間的最低水平，也是長期持有的一個很好的買入點。
You can see what the price tends to do after the holiday. It is indeed “poised to rise;” from then till the end of September is its strongest time of year.
您可以查看假期後的價格走勢。它確實是“蓄勢待發；”從那時到9月底是一年中最強勁的時間。
For those of you that have an“accumulation” mentality, this can be valuable intel. It’s basically how I handle buying silver (and gold), too; I swoop in on dips and corrections and big selloffs.
對於那些具有“積累”心態的人來說，這可能是有價值的知識。基本上，這也是我處理白銀（和黃金）的方式。我買入, 在修正期和大跌價時。
My confidence in the big picture for silver gives me the confidence to buy when the price softens. I’m accumulating in the present for a big payday in the future. Pullbacks are thus a chance for me to pay less.
我對白銀的整體前景充滿信心，這使我有信心在價格下跌時購買白銀。目前，我正在為未來積累大量薪水。因此，下跌時對我來說是一次少付一點錢的機會。
Of course there’s no guarantee seasonal trends will play out. There are a lot of factors that can impact silver’s price in the short-term.
當然，我們不能保證季節性趨勢會持續下去。有許多因素會在短期內影響白銀的價格。
But this data does tell us one thing:
但是這些數據確實告訴我們一件事：
Be on the lookout for a potential decline in the silver price. Build cash to take advantage of it if the opportunity comes.
Premiums remain stubbornly high, so this is how I’m accumulating silver for the time being… it allows me to pay a low premium now and convert later when they come down (or just sell).
請注意白銀價格可能會下跌。如果有機會，積累現金好以利用。
溢價一直居高不下，所以這就是我暫時積累白銀的方式……它使我現在可以支付低價的溢價，並在它們下跌時進行轉換(或直接賣掉)。
Whatever you do, I hope you’re prepared to pounce on the next dip, whenever it may arrive.
無論您做什麼，我都希望您準備好在下一個下降時突襲一下。
Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst
Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: GoldSilver.com
*文章內容為筆者個人見解，僅供參考。恕不代表本站立場
